Nov 15, 2022

Malaysia GE15 Election Poll Prediction (Final Week)

A more recent Final Day election polling result and prediction is available here.

The Malaysian 15th General Election (GE15) will be the first Malaysian election that features a contest between three major parties.

Vodus Research has conducted a nationwide GE15 election poll from 5th to 14th November 2022 using our OMTOS survey technology to survey 8,075 nationally representative voters across popular online news and content publisher platforms. 

Overall Results

Our polling results have shown that Pakatan Harapan (PH) is leading the election with 81 seats that have clear cut leads, followed by Barisan Nasional (BN) with 56 seats, Perikatan Nasional (PN) with 27 seats, Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) with 27 seats, Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) with 8 seats).

The remaining 24 seats are closely contested seats where no party has a clear lead. Among these 23 closely contested seats, 11 are contested between BN-PN, 5 are between BN-PH, 2 are between PN-PH, 4 are between GRS-PH, while 1 is between GPS-PH. BN greatest rival in these closely contested seats is PN, which are mainly located in the Malay heartlands of Pahang, Kelantan, Terengganu, and Kedah. In total, BN is contesting in 16 closely contested seats, followed by PN 13 seats, PH 12 seats, GRS 3 seats, Warisan 1 seat and GPS 1 seat.

From the closely contested seats, we predict that PH will win with most seats in GE15 (86), followed by BN (60), PN (38), GPS (27), GRS (10) and Warisan (1).


State Analysis

PH’s relentless campaigning over the past 3 months in Peninsular Malaysia has successfully drummed up the enthusiasm of their own voter base, greatly increasing their lead in Selangor, Perak, Johor as compared to our last voter sentiment survey in August 2022. PH is expected to sweep a majority of seats in Selangor (19 out of 22 seats), Penang (11 out of 13 seats), Kuala Lumpur (8 out of 11 seats) and Perak (13 out of 24 seats).

Johor and Negeri Sembilan are expected to be a close contest between PH and BN, where both parties have almost equal number of seats. In Johor, BN (10 seats) leads over PH (9 seats), whereas PN trails PH at 5 seats. 2 seats in Johor (Johor Bahru, Mersing) are still closely contested with no party having a clear lead. BN is expected to gain half or more of the seats in Kedah and Melaka, which swung to PH in GE14.

Over in the East Coast, Pahang is the most closely contested state, with PH, BN and PN having almost equal number of seats, while 6 seats in Pahang are closely contested with no party having a clear lead. Kelantan is expected to be closely contested between BN and PN, with both parties having 4 seats each and 5 seats remain closely contested.

 

In East Malaysia, the local East Malaysian parties, GPS and GRS, have commanded a strong lead in the number of seats in their respective states. GPS and GRS are on track to win 27 and 8 seats in Sarawak and Sabah respectively, while PH is predicted to win 9 seats in East Malaysia. Among the closely contested seats, Warisan is predicted to win one of those seat.


Deep Diving into the Constituencies